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SATVIEW - Forecast for reentry of space junk (). Track it in Real time

     The space junk is forecast to reentry at UTC +/- 8 hours

Forecast for Reentry


Update Mon 6-Jul-2020 17:52 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk () predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in at UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Track in Real time Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees Apogee
Km Perigee
Km Period
min Options SL-12 R/B(AUX MOTOR)
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-14 2012 38105U 47º 296 112 89 Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-06-23 2020 45799U 53º 239 173 89 Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-4C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-4 2019 44210U 97º 144 124 87 Reentered!
Lat=-61.3   Lon=81.5
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-7 2020 45719U 53º 208 178 88 Reentered!
Forecast
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-8 2020 45729U 98º 292 159 89 Reentered!
Lat=26.6   Lon=347.6
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-8 2020 45604U 97º 345 143 89 Reentered!
Lat=-46   Lon=74.9
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-9 2020 45718U 53º 226 185 89 Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-10 2020 45717U 53º 234 185 89 Forecast FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-11 2020 45720U 53º 240 189 89 Forecast SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19 2019 44799U 98º 236 212 89 Forecast FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19 2020 45793U 53º 301 199 90 Forecast FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-19 2020 45798U 53º 295 198 89 Forecast FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-24 2020 45791U 53º 314 203 90 Forecast FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-25 2020 45792U 53º 314 205 90 Forecast FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-07-30 2020 45853U 53º 322 204 90 Forecast SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-1 2018 43658U 67º 347 197 90 Forecast CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-23 2013 39482U 24º 3680 136 125 Forecast 1998-067PK
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-08-30 1998 43598U 52º 301 295 90 Forecast TANUSHA-3
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-18 1998 43597U 52º 308 303 91 Forecast ARIANE 44L+ R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-24 1992 21941U 4º 1674 169 103 Forecast CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-09-26 2018 43451U 27º 31730 115 552 Forecast SMOG-P
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-6 2019 44832U 97º 341 309 91 Forecast 1998-067PC
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-16 1998 43554U 52º 315 312 91 Forecast CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-10-26 2008 33415U 24º 8098 133 178 Forecast ATL-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-6 2019 44830U 97º 347 312 91 Forecast ENDUROSAT ONE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-16 1998 43551U 52º 323 320 91 Forecast CZ-3B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-19 2015 41195U 23º 5092 140 141 Forecast SHENZHOU-11 MODULE
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-20 2016 41868U 43º 286 265 90 Forecast ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-11-20 2019 44500U 45º 404 283 91 Forecast FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-14 2018 43588U 27º 5228 146 143 Forecast FALCON 9 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-23 2018 43230U 27º 6490 132 158 Forecast ELECTRON KICK STAGE R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2020-12-27 2019 44825U 97º 361 315 91 Forecast DELTA 2 R/B(2) (PAM-D)
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-1 2007 32261U 40º 1756 181 104 Forecast UITMSAT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-14 1998 43589U 52º 336 334 91 Forecast MAYA-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2021-01-15 1998 43590U 52º 336 334 91 Forecast



The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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