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Republican Party presidential primaries, 2020

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2020

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2,472 delegate votes to the Republican National Convention
1,237 delegates votes needed to win

Previous Republican nominee

Donald Trump



The 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries and caucuses will be a series of electoral contests taking place within all 50 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and five U.S. territories. Sanctioned by the Republican Party, these elections are designed to select the 2,472 delegates to send to the Republican National Convention, who will select the Republican Party's nominee for President of the United States in the 2020 election. The delegates also approve the party platform and vice-presidential nominee.

President Donald Trump formally launched his bid for re-election on February 17, 2017.

Candidates

An incumbent president seeking re-election usually faces no significant opposition during their respective party's primaries, especially if they are still popular. For Presidents Dwight D. Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and Barack Obama, for example, their respective paths to nomination became uneventful and the races become merely pro forma; all five then went on to win a second presidential term. Serious challenges are rare, but then generally presage failure to win the general election in the fall. During the 1976 Republican Party primaries, then-former California Governor Reagan carried 23 states while running against incumbent President Gerald Ford; Ford then went on to lose the presidential election to Jimmy Carter, albeit carrying more states. Senator Ted Kennedy then carried 12 states while running against Carter during the 1980 Democratic Party primaries; Reagan then defeated Carter in the fall of 1980. Pat Buchanan captured a decent percentage of a protest vote against George H. W. Bush during the 1992 Republican primaries, but only received a handful of delegates; Bush too subsequently went on to lose in the general election to Clinton.

Numerous pundits, journalists and politicians have speculated that the 2020 election cycle might see a significant Republican Party challenger to President Donald Trump, namely because of his historic unpopularity in polls, his association with allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections and his support of unpopular policies and decisions.[1][2][3] Several Republican critics of the Trump Administration have indeed hinted at or are reportedly considering challenging Trump. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won the election to replace outgoing Utah Senator Orrin Hatch, which would give him a significant platform to challenge Donald Trump.[4] Other Republicans such as Tennessee Senator Bob Corker and Arizona Senator Jeff Flake have spent much of 2017 and 2018 leading a Republican opposition to Trump in their outspoken criticism of the President on the Senate floor. 2016 presidential candidates John Kasich and Carly Fiorina have also indicated interest in challenging Trump. In the case of Ohio Governor John Kasich, rumors have circulated that he might consider a joint ticket with Colorado Democratic Governor John Hickenlooper.[5] In March 2018, Flake and Kasich traveled to New Hampshire to reportedly "test the waters."[6]

Longtime political strategist Roger Stone, however, predicts that Trump may not seek a second term if he succeeds in keeping all of his campaign promises and "[makes] America great again".[7]

Declared major candidates

Candidate Most recent position Candidacy Total pledged delegates Contests won[a]
Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Donald Trump
President of the United States
from New York

(2017–present)
February 17, 2017
(Campaign)
0 / 2472 (0%)

N/A

Individuals who have publicly expressed interest

Individuals in this section have expressed an interest in running for president within the last six months.


Speculative candidates

Some people have been subjects of speculation by the media about their potential candidacy, but they later declined, or speculation died out.

Declined to be candidates

The individuals in this section have been the subject of speculation about their possible candidacy, but have publicly denied interest in running.

National convention

Bids for the National Convention were solicited in the fall of 2017, with finalists being announced early the following spring. On July 18, 2018, Charlotte, North Carolina's Spectrum Center was chosen unanimously as the site of the Convention.[68]

Withdrew from consideration

Endorsements

Donald Trump

Primary election polling

National polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bob
Corker
Tom
Cotton
Ted
Cruz
Jeff
Flake
Nikki
Haley
John
Kasich
Mike
Pence
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Ben
Sasse
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
Harvard-Harris June 24–25, 2018 430 15% 85%
Saint Leo University May 25–31, 2018 63% 24% 13%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times December 15, 2017 – January 15, 2018 1,530 ± 3.0% 75% 25%
Emerson College January 8–11, 2018 198 68% 18% 14%
GQR Research/Democracy Corps January 6–11, 2018 374 4% 1% 4% 3% 11% 5% 62% 0% 5%
Public Policy Polling December 11–12, 2017 21% 64% 15%
16% 74% 10%
19% 70% 11%
22% 62% 15%
70% 24% 6%
Public Religion Research Institute October 18–30, 2017 846 59% 34% 7%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2017 27% 57% 16%
14% 70% 16%
24% 66% 11%
28% 53% 19%
57% 36% 8%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2017 15% 68% 17%
18% 68% 13%
21% 59% 21%
61% 27% 12%
Fabrizio Lee August 2017 1,500 ± 2.5% 1% 13% 10% 1% 54% 20%
Public Policy Polling August 18–21, 2017 22% 62% 17%
21% 68% 11%
24% 52% 23%
57% 29% 13%
Opinion Savvy August 16–17, 2017 220 ± 6.6% 8% 17% 68% 7%
221 ± 6.6% 12% 15% 65% 8%
Marist College August 8–12, 2017 361 ± 5.2% 23% 64% 10%
33% 56% 8%

Statewide polling

New Hampshire
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tom
Cotton
Ted
Cruz
Jeff
Flake
John
Kasich
Mike
Pence
Mitt
Romney
Marco
Rubio
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire August 2–19, 2018 199 ± 6.9% 56% 20% 24%
Suffolk University April 26–30, 2018 315 ± 5.5% 15% 72% 13%
23% 68% 8%
28% 63% 9%
23% 66% 11%
University of New Hampshire April 13–22, 2018 202 ± 6.8% 19% 67% 0% 14%
55% 19% 27%
American Research Group March 21–27, 2018 420 ± 5.0% 4% 34% 51% 11%
33% 49% 18%
42% 48% 9%
5% 7% 11% 36% 41%
University of New Hampshire January 28 – February 10, 2018 157 ± 7.8% 60% 18% 23%
University of New Hampshire October 3–15, 2017 191 ± 7.1% 47% 23% 30%
American Research Group August 4–6, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 52% 40% 8%
52% 27% 32%
Ohio
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John
Kasich
Donald
Trump
Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University February 28 – March 9, 2018 261 ± 6.0% 27% 62%
Florida
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Other Undecided
Saint Leo University May 25–31, 2018 68% 18% 13%
Delaware
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
John
Kasich
Donald
Trump
Undecided
Gravis Marketing July 24–29, 2018 288 ± 5.8% 9% 67% 25%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ According to popular vote or pledged delegate count (not counting superdelegates)
  1. ^ This individual is not a member of the Republican Party, but has been the subject of speculation and/or expressed interest in running under this party.

References

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