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2012 United States presidential election in Michigan

United States presidential election in Michigan, 2012

← 2008 November 6, 2012 2016 →
Turnout63% Decrease [1]
  President Barack Obama, 2012 portrait crop.jpg Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 8.jpg
Nominee Barack Obama Mitt Romney
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Illinois Massachusetts
Running mate Joe Biden Paul Ryan
Electoral vote 16 0
Popular vote 2,564,569 2,115,256
Percentage 54.21% 44.71%

Michigan presidential election results 2012.svg
County Results

President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2012 United States presidential election in Michigan took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 General Election in which all 50 states plus The District of Columbia participated. Michigan voters chose 16 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Michigan was won by Democratic incumbent Barack Obama by a 9.5% margin of victory.[2] Obama received 54.21% of the vote to Romney's 44.71%. It was the sixth presidential election in a row where Michigan voted in favor of the Democratic candidate, with Republicans last carrying the state in 1988, when George H.W. Bush won in Michigan; however, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump did end up winning the state in 2016.

General election

Candidate Ballot Access:

  • Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan, Republican
  • Barack Obama/Joseph Biden, Democratic
  • Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer, US Taxpayers
  • Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala, Green
  • Rocky Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez, Natural Law

Write-In Candidate Access:

  • Gary Johnson/James P. Gray, Libertarian

Analysis

All of the local polling firms had predicted a close election here, some even giving an advantage to Michigander Romney over Obama; however, statistician Nate Silver pointed out several problems with the local pollsters' methodology and sampling errors, instead giving more credence to the national pollsters who posited a clear victory for Obama (by a mean of 7.3 points and a median of 7.0 over Romney).[3]

In the end, Silver and the National pollsters were correct: Obama defeated Romney by over 9 points in the November 2012 election. Obama dominated heavily populated areas that tend to trend very Democratic, while Romney did better in more rural areas.

Results

United States presidential election in Michigan, 2012[4]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 2,564,569 54.21% 16
Republican Mitt Romney Paul Ryan 2,115,256 44.71% 0
Green Jill Stein Cheri Honkala 21,897 0.46% 0
Constitution Virgil Goode Jim Clymer 16,119 0.34% 0
Libertarian (Write-in) Gary Johnson Jim Gray 7,774 0.16% 0
Natural Law Rocky Anderson Luis J. Rodriguez 5,147 0.11% 0
Socialist (Write-in) Stewart Alexander Alex Mendoza 89 0.00% 0
Socialist Equality
(Write-in)
Jerry White Phyllis Scherrer 68 0.00% 0
America's (Write-in) Tom Hoefling J.D. Ellis 42 0.00% 0
Totals 4,730,961 100.00% 16
Voter turnout (registered voters) [4] 63.46%

Results breakdown

By county

County Obama% Obama# Romney% Romney# Others% Others# Total
Alcona County 40.50% 2,472 58.50% 3,571 1.00% 61 6,104
Alger County 47.90% 2,212 50.45% 2,330 1.65% 76 4,618
Allegan County 39.54% 20,806 59.15% 31,123 1.31% 690 52,619
Alpena County 46.73% 6,549 52.08% 7,298 1.19% 167 14,014
Antrim County 38.70% 5,107 60.00% 7,917 1.30% 171 13,195
Arenac County 46.79% 3,669 51.74% 4,057 1.47% 115 7,841
Baraga County 45.10% 1,574 53.47% 1,866 1.43% 50 3,490
Barry County 40.30% 11,491 58.41% 16,655 1.28% 366 28,512
Bay County 52.22% 27,877 46.67% 24,911 1.11% 593 53,381
Benzie County 47.32% 4,685 51.26% 5,075 1.42% 141 9,901
Berrien County 46.16% 33,465 52.70% 38,209 1.14% 823 72,497
Branch County 40.32% 6,913 58.52% 10,035 1.16% 199 17,147
Calhoun County 50.18% 29,267 48.58% 28,333 1.25% 727 58,327
Cass County 42.65% 9,591 56.29% 12,659 1.07% 240 22,490
Charlevoix County 42.15% 5,939 56.78% 8,000 1.07% 151 14,090
Cheboygan County 43.81% 5,831 54.74% 7,286 1.46% 194 13,311
Chippewa County 45.62% 7,100 53.19% 8,278 1.20% 186 15,564
Clare County 46.93% 6,338 51.75% 6,988 1.32% 178 13,504
Clinton County 46.36% 18,191 52.63% 20,650 1.00% 394 39,235
Crawford County 43.94% 2,994 54.95% 3,744 1.12% 76 6,814
Delta County 46.15% 8,330 52.82% 9,534 1.03% 186 18,050
Dickinson County 38.66% 4,952 60.02% 7,688 1.33% 170 12,810
Eaton County 50.95% 27,913 47.82% 26,197 1.24% 678 54,788
Emmet County 40.80% 7,225 57.90% 10,253 1.30% 231 17,709
Genesee County 43.49% 20,875 55.28% 26,534 1.23% 590 47,999
Gladwin County 63.56% 128,978 35.39% 71,808 1.06% 2,147 202,933
Gogebic County 45.78% 5,760 52.94% 6,661 1.29% 162 12,583
Grand Traverse County 53.56% 4,058 45.46% 3,444 0.98% 74 7,576
Gratiot County 47.46% 7,610 51.39% 8,241 1.15% 184 16,035
Hillsdale County 37.20% 7,106 61.40% 11,727 1.40% 267 19,100
Houghton County 44.50% 6,801 53.63% 8,196 1.86% 285 15,282
Huron County 42.10% 6,518 56.87% 8,806 1.03% 160 15,484
Ingham County 63.21% 80,847 35.42% 45,306 1.37% 1,757 127,910
Ionia County 42.77% 11,018 55.57% 14,315 1.66% 428 25,761
Iosco County 46.78% 6,242 51.78% 6,909 1.45% 193 13,344
Iron County 44.87% 2,687 53.84% 3,224 1.29% 77 5,988
Isabella County 54.06% 13,038 44.78% 10,800 1.17% 281 24,119
Jackson County 46.51% 32,301 52.27% 36,298 1.22% 847 69,446
Kalamazoo County 56.06% 69,051 42.75% 52,662 1.19% 1,465 123,178
Kalkaska County 39.43% 3,272 59.06% 4,901 1.52% 126 8,299
Kent County 45.53% 133,408 53.22% 155,925 1.25% 3,652 292,985
Keweenaw County 41.81% 582 55.60% 774 2.59% 36 1,392
Lake County 52.05% 2,752 47.04% 2,487 0.91% 48 5,287
Lapeer County 43.60% 18,796 55.05% 23,734 1.36% 585 43,115
Leelanau County 46.39% 6,576 52.79% 7,483 0.83% 117 14,176
Lenawee County 48.69% 21,776 49.98% 22,351 1.33% 597 44,724
Livingston County 37.85% 37,216 61.10% 60,083 1.06% 1,038 98,337
Luce County 38.17% 991 60.86% 1,580 0.96% 25 2,596
Mackinac County 43.48% 2,652 55.70% 3,397 0.82% 50 6,099
Macomb County 51.48% 208,016 47.49% 191,913 1.03% 4,157 404,086
Manistee County 52.19% 6,473 46.26% 5,737 1.55% 192 12,402
Marquette County 56.27% 18,115 42.26% 13,606 1.47% 473 32,194
Mason County 46.95% 6,856 51.90% 7,580 1.15% 168 14,604
Mecosta County 44.43% 7,515 54.25% 9,176 1.31% 222 16,913
Menominee County 47.99% 5,242 50.94% 5,564 1.07% 117 10,923
Midland County 41.79% 17,450 57.29% 23,919 0.92% 385 41,754
Missaukee County 32.36% 2,274 66.39% 4,665 1.25% 88 7,027
Monroe County 49.84% 36,310 48.86% 35,593 1.30% 950 72,853
Montcalm County 44.95% 11,430 53.56% 13,621 1.49% 380 25,431
Montmorency County 40.57% 2,049 57.97% 2,928 1.47% 74 5,051
Muskegon County 58.34% 44,436 40.55% 30,884 1.11% 843 76,163
Newaygo County 40.64% 8,728 58.00% 12,457 1.36% 293 21,478
Oakland County 53.56% 349,002 45.51% 296,514 0.93% 6,091 651,607
Oceana County 44.22% 5,063 54.49% 6,239 1.29% 148 11,450
Ogemaw County 46.24% 4,791 52.48% 5,437 1.28% 133 10,361
Ontonagon County 44.81% 1,586 53.86% 1,906 1.33% 47 3,539
Osceola County 38.73% 3,981 59.75% 6,141 1.52% 156 10,278
Oscoda County 40.99% 1,657 57.10% 2,308 1.90% 77 4,042
Otsego County 39.56% 4,681 59.25% 7,011 1.18% 140 11,832
Ottawa County 32.30% 42,737 66.63% 88,166 1.06% 1,409 132,312
Presque Isle County 45.08% 3,192 53.59% 3,794 1.33% 94 7,080
Roscommon County 47.56% 6,198 51.42% 6,701 1.02% 133 13,032
Saginaw County 55.46% 54,381 43.56% 42,720 0.98% 961 98,062
St. Clair County 39.26% 7,212 59.68% 10,963 1.06% 194 18,369
St. Joseph County 46.07% 1,865 52.92% 2,142 1.01% 41 4,048
Sanilac County 51.06% 17,197 47.39% 15,962 1.54% 520 33,679
Schoolcraft County 45.81% 33,983 52.94% 39,271 1.25% 927 74,181
Shiawassee County 43.32% 10,112 55.60% 12,978 1.08% 251 23,341
Tuscola County 43.94% 11,425 54.76% 14,240 1.30% 338 26,003
Van Buren County 49.61% 16,290 49.15% 16,141 1.24% 406 32,837
Washtenaw County 67.31% 120,890 31.41% 56,412 1.28% 2,290 179,592
Wayne County 73.04% 595,846 26.21% 213,814 0.76% 6,165 815,825
Wexford County 41.63% 6,184 56.89% 8,450 1.47% 219 14,853

By congressional district

Obama won 5 of 14 congressional districts.[5]

District Obama Romney Representative
1st 45% 53% Dan Benishek
2nd 43% 56% Bill Huizenga
3rd 46% 53% Justin Amash
4th 46% 54% Dave Camp
5th 61% 38% Dan Kildee
6th 49% 50% Fred Upton
7th 48% 51% Tim Walberg
8th 48% 51% Mike Rogers
9th 57% 42% Sander Levin
10th 44% 55% Candice Miller
11th 47% 52% Kerry Bentivolio
12th 66% 33% John Dingell
13th 85% 14% John Conyers
14th 81% 18% Gary Peters

Electors

Technically the voters of Michigan cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Michigan is allocated 16 electors because it has 14 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 16 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the plurality of votes in the state is awarded all 16 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 17, 2012, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state.

Democratic primary

The Democratic Party used a caucus system to determine the proportion of delegates awarded to Democratic candidates. The caucuses took place May 5; as the only Democratic candidate, President Obama won all 183 pledged delegates in the caucus. They, along with the other 20 unpledged delegates, voted for Obama at the 2012 Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Republican primary

Michigan Republican primary, 2012

← 2008 February 28, 2012 (2012-02-28) 2016 →
  Mitt Romney by Gage Skidmore 8.jpg Rick Santorum by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Candidate Mitt Romney Rick Santorum
Home state Massachusetts Pennsylvania
Delegate count 16 14
Popular vote 409,522 377,372
Percentage 41.10% 37.87%

  Ron Paul by Gage Skidmore 3 crop.jpg Newt Gingrich by Gage Skidmore 6.jpg
Candidate Ron Paul Newt Gingrich
Home state Texas Georgia
Delegate count 0 0
Popular vote 115,911 65,027
Percentage 11.63% 6.53%

Michigan Republican Presidential Primary Election Results by County, 2012.svg
Michigan results by county
  Mitt Romney
  Rick Santorum

The Republican primary took place on February 28, 2012,[7] the same day as the Arizona Republican primary. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney won both of these elections.

This Michigan election used a semi-open primary system (which the state referred to as "closed") in which each voter made a public declaration at their election site and received the ballot for the appropriate party, rather than the fully open system used in the past.[8] The state had 7,286,556 registered voters as of February 15, and delegates were awarded proportionately.[4]

Michigan was given 59 delegates to the Republican (GOP) national convention, but that number was reduced to 30 as a penalty for bringing the election date forward before March 6 as the GOP rules set.[7] The candidate with the greatest number of votes in each of the 14 congressional districts will receive that district's two delegates. Two additional delegates for Michigan were announced by the media to be given proportionally before the election[7] but after the election the Michigan GOP announced there had been an error in the memo published and that the two delegates will be given to the winner, which sparked accusations of Mitt Romney rigging the results from Rick Santorum's team.[9]

Polling

Campaign

While Romney has close ties to Michigan, where he was born and grew up and his father was the Governor, Santorum, who once trailed Romney badly in the state, had a clear lead over him in mid February after Santorum won Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri caucuses and primary on February 7. And the competition became a statistical tie between these two candidates before the primary.[10]

Since Michigan allows primary voters to declare their affiliation at the time they vote, Santorum campaign paid for robo-calls inviting Democrats to cross over and vote for him.[11] Romney called this tactic "outrageous" and "disgusting" but Santorum defended himself as not doing anything wrong but getting people to vote in an open primary.[12]

Some Democrats also urged their supporters to vote for Santorum in the Republican primary, in hopes of forcing the Republican candidates to use more resources and help make it easier for Barack Obama to win the general election.[13] This is similar to Rush Limbaugh's "Operation Chaos", where Limbaugh urged voters in the 2008 Democratic Presidential primaries to vote for Hillary Clinton, whom he saw as being a weaker candidate than Obama.[14] Michigan has a long history of such crossover voting; in 2000, strong Democratic crossover votes helped Senator John McCain win the Michigan Republican primary.[15] In 1972, Republican crossover votes propelled Governor George Wallace to victory in the Democratic primary.[16][17]

Results

Polls closed at 8 PM local time on election day.[18] While most of the state is in the Eastern time zone (UTC -5), four counties in the Upper Peninsula are on Central time (UTC -6), so the final closures came at 9 PM Eastern time. As of 2/28, results showed Romney winning 7 congressional districts and Santorum winning 7.

Michigan Republican primary, 2012[19]
Candidate Votes Percentage Projected delegate count
AP
[20]
CNN
[21]
GP
[22]
America Symbol.svg Mitt Romney 409,522 41.10% 16 16 16
Rick Santorum 377,372 37.87% 14 14 14
Ron Paul 115,911 11.63% 0 0 0
Newt Gingrich 65,027 6.53% 0 0 0
Rick Perry (withdrawn) 1,816 0.18% 0 0 0
Buddy Roemer (withdrawn) 1,784 0.18% 0 0 0
Michele Bachmann (withdrawn) 1,735 0.17% 0 0 0
Jon Huntsman (withdrawn) 1,674 0.17% 0 0 0
Herman Cain (withdrawn) 1,211 0.12% 0 0 0
Fred Karger 1,180 0.12% 0 0 0
Gary Johnson (withdrawn) 458 0.05% 0 0 0
Uncommitted 18,809 1.89% 0 0 0
Unprojected delegates: 2 0 0
Total: 996,499 100.00% 30 30 30

At the Republican state convention in May, it was reported that of the 30 voting delegates for the national convention in Tampa, 6 were Paul supporters, and 24 were Romney supporters.[23][24][25][26] Paul organizers disputed these numbers, stating that they had actually taken 8 (instead of 6) of the voting delegates, plus several non-voting slots.[27]

Delegate allocation controversy

A controversy arose over the delegate allocation in Michigan, where 28 congressional district delegates and two at-large delegates were awarded. The Republican Party of Michigan rules stated that the two at-large delegates would be awarded proportionally, meaning that Santorum and Romney would get one delegate each for a 15-15 tie. But the following day the party's credentials committee allocated both at-large delegates to Romney, saying it had changed the rules a few weeks prior to award the delegates to the statewide winner but "in error" sent a memo to the candidates saying they would be awarded proportionately.[28] Santorum's campaign protested, saying the committee's six members were mostly Romney supporters,[29] and filed a protest with the Republican National Committee. Santorum's general counsel wrote in a letter to the RNC, "It is our understanding that several public supporters and Michigan surrogates of an opposing campaign voted in favor of the delegate allocation change which assisted their chosen candidate. This request is not about the allocation of a single delegate; it is about ensuring a transparent process, avoiding unscrupulous tactics and backroom deals by establishment figures and campaigns who have not received the result they hoped for at the ballot box."[30] Committee member and former state attorney general Mike Cox endorsed Romney, but said the delegates should have been awarded 15-15: "I have this crazy idea that you follow the rules. I'd love to give the at-large delegates to Mitt Romney, but our rules provide for strict apportionment."[29]

See also

References

  1. ^ [www.michigan.gov]
  2. ^ "2012 Presidential Election - Michigan". Politico. Retrieved 23 November 2012.
  3. ^ Nate Silver (August 28, 2012). "Aug. 27: Michigan Isn't a Tossup". New York Times. Retrieved October 15, 2013.
  4. ^ a b c "2012 Voter Registration Totals" (PDF). Michigan Secretary of State. February 15, 2012. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  5. ^ [www.mlive.com]
  6. ^ Ms. Bell submitted a letter of resignation dated November 15, 2012 to Governor Rick Snyder. Pursuant to MCL 168.47, the vacancy was filled when the electors met on December 17.
  7. ^ a b c "Michigan Republican Delegation 2012". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 29, 2012.
  8. ^ Questions and Answers: Michigan’s Feb. 28, 2012 Presidential Primary (PDF), Michigan Secretary of State, 2012-02-21, retrieved 2012-03-02
  9. ^ "Michigan results provoke accusations, ire". CNN. March 1, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  10. ^ "After Many Momentum Shifts, Michigan Is Too Close to Call". FiveThirtyEight. February 28, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  11. ^ "Santorum Campaign Invites Democratic Votes In Michigan Robo-Call". ABC News. February 27, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  12. ^ "Romney blasts Santorum for 'dirty trick' calls to Michigan Dems encouraging vote in GOP primary". Fox News. February 28, 2012. Retrieved March 2, 2012.
  13. ^ Angela Wittrock (February 28, 2012). "Yes, Michigan Democrats are voting for Rick Santorum". MLive. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  14. ^ Jon Bershad (February 28, 2012). "Rush Limbaugh Has "No Problem" With Rick Santorum Copying His Operation Chaos Approach". Mediaite. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  15. ^ Camia, Catalina (February 27, 2012). "Crossover voting encouraged in Mich. GOP primary". On Politics. USA Today. Retrieved March 1, 2012.
  16. ^ Mitchell, Steve (February 23, 2012). "Michigan's quirky primaries". The Detroit News. Retrieved March 1, 2012.
  17. ^ Rosenthal, Jack (May 17, 1972). "Survey Ties Issues, Not Shooting, to Wallace Victory". The New York Times. Retrieved March 1, 2012.
  18. ^ "What hours are the polls open on Election Day?". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved February 28, 2012.
  19. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on May 2, 2012. Retrieved May 7, 2012.
  20. ^ Michigan Primary - AP
  21. ^ Michigan Primary - CNN
  22. ^ Michigan Primary - Green Papers
  23. ^ [www.battlecreekenquirer.com]
  24. ^ [www.michiganradio.org]
  25. ^ [www.mlive.com]
  26. ^ [twitter.com]
  27. ^ [m.detnews.com]
  28. ^ Mitt Romney gets Michigan's at-large delegates
  29. ^ a b Republican discord continues, national GOP to investigate Michigan party leaders?
  30. ^ Rick Santorum files protest over Michigan delegates

External links